Asset Remarketing Industry Review

Welcome to our 2016 wrap up.

It has been an exciting year for the Slattery Asset Advisory and Slattery Auctions’ teams with some new additions in recent months including Steve Waterman to our team in Perth, Lance McGlone in Sydney, Kelvin Deasey and Adam Wallace in our Brisbane office. Whilst looking after both Western Australia and Queensland respectively Steve and Adam will be working on files nationally and Lance and Kelvin driving new business in NSW and QLD.

Steve Waterman’s expertise further strengthens Slattery’s capability with our international partners to offer capital solutions in the industrial space through our offering of guaranteed asset values, short term bridging finance, or guaranteed recovery positions, among other innovative solutions.

Adam, as the former national sales manager for Sandvik Mining, brings his extensive network of relationships and profound knowledge of the mining sector to our mining team boosting our capacity to deliver market leading solutions for our clients operating in the mining sector.

Kelvin and Lance both have extensive backgrounds in the automotive sector and will be building on Slattery’s capability to deliver asset advisory and auction services in the automotive sector.

The Slattery team in Western Australia and Queensland continue to be the strongest performers around the country, and we have seen a bump in workflow for the previously subdued NSW market.

As always, we have included some key highlights and lowlights in the report to reflect some areas that may encourage further investigation for our clients.

The key trends we have seen over the back end of the year include:

• Medium sized mining and earthmoving assets doing well, while larger assets struggle.
• An erratic prime mover market subject to regional variance in demand and price.
• A more buoyant agriculture sector punctuated by an active tractor market.
• Chinese built motor vehicles struggling to garner any buyer interest.

Also of interest may be our 2017 Outlook, where we predict key trends for the coming year. Enjoy!

Slattery Asset Advisory

Year End Sales Round Up

Mining and Earthmoving

New Equipment Results

Caterpillar globally has again recorded substantially lower revenue from the previous year and has undergone massive restructuring and cost reductions to manage the downturn in sales. Caterpillar’s CEO Doug Oberhelman noted in their financial reporting that “In North America, the market has an abundance of used construction equipment, rail customers have a substantial number of idle locomotives, and around the world there are a significant number of idle mining trucks.”

In the Asia Pacific, sales dropped 8% primarily due to lower end user demand for energy and transportation related products.  In the resources sector specifically, sales also dropped 8% from the previous year due to lower end user demand. After significant annual year on year reductions in sales, this single figure reduction suggests that we may be reaching the bottom floor of plummeting new asset sales figures.

Whilst there has been a slight bump in commodity prices recently, mines around the world continue to focus on improving productivity in existing mines and reducing their total capital expenditure, as they have for a number of years.

In good news for Caterpillar, the construction sector in the Asia Pacific saw an increase in sales of construction equipment of 14%, the only geographic region to record growth in sales, however this is primarily due to sales in China.

Secondary Market - Mining & Earthmoving, Plant & Equipment

The mining and earthmoving sector has continued steadily over the past quarter, an increase in demand for good quality medium size assets across all earthmoving categories resulting in overall higher prices. There has been no real change for larger mining assets, which have a large volume for sale on the market and available ‘off market’. Where there is a contract associated with a piece of equipment however, we have seen prices bounce back to prices well above current market values.

In NSW, there has been a noticeable increase in prices with one prominent machinery dealer commenting that he has seen an increase in wholesale prices for small to medium sized earthmoving assets of 5% over the last quarter alone. Results through Slattery’s NSW machinery auctions over the last quarter are consistent with this observation.

Bulldozers & Wheel Loaders

In August Slattery in NSW offered a 2004 Caterpillar D8R Dozer with over 9,300 hours for sale. There was strong interest across the eastern states for the dozer, which sold for $220,000 to an end user representing approximately 90% of retail value.

D8 and D9 size dozers are still selling well in general on the back of a thriving agricultural sector. Whilst signs are positive, a lot of enquiries on assets we are offering appear to be from industry players trying to establish where the market is sitting with respect to values.

Larger dozers have suffered the most on the value front with many D10 and D11’s parked up in Central Qld.  These units are considered too big and too costly to run to perform rural applications and really only suit the mining and heavy construction industries.  Our Qld office however, had some great success selling a D10 dozer out of Roma into Egypt, the second dozer in as many months to be sold by Slattery’s to Egypt.

Front end wheel loaders have remained strong throughout the country with the agricultural sector pushing the market up as they look to upgrade older equipment courtesy of a good cropping season and very strong cattle prices.

Excavators & Skid Steer Loaders

Slattery’s listed a number of medium to larger 20 tonne and 30 tonne + excavators over the past quarter. Three out of NSW made just over 80% of retail value to machinery dealers, which is a stronger result than what has previously been achieved over the past 12 months offering further evidence that confidence is returning to the market for larger equipment.

All Slattery offices around the country have reported that smaller diggers and skid steer loaders continue to achieve very strong results and are highly sought after by buyers. During August, Slattery was engaged to liquidate the assets of a civil construction company. The enquiries on these assets were well above normal and a huge crowd turned out on the day resulting in very competitive bidding. As expected, all assets sold very well with a 2008 Kubota 4.5 tonne digger selling to an end user for $24,000 representing approximately 96% of retail value.

Our Qld office has noted a trend in the resistance towards open cab skid steer loaders with operators wanting the comfort of air-conditioned cabs. We expect this will be particularly prevalent in Qld leading into the summer months.

This quarter also saw a major local dealer in Newcastle put some of his second hand, smaller excavator stock through auction. This was a new sales channel for the dealer who achieved a sales result of $27,500 for a 2010 JCB 3.5 tonne excavator, which was more than what the dealer had been asking for as a retail price through his own dealership. A huge result for our vendor.

WA has seen some positive signs of recovery assisted by an increase in exploration in alternate resources such as Lithium and a slight recovery in gold exploration. However, the bulk of the quality construction assets continue to be purchased by east coast buyers.

Ultra-Class Mining Equipment

New ultra-class equipment has not come on to the market and is instead in care and maintenance. A large volume of equipment is available ‘off market’ however.

Our WA office had a successful period of selling equipment internationally with buyers for large ore crushing equipment being sold into Ireland and yellow gear into the middle east.

Slattery has been engaged to work on a large file of ultra-class mining equipment nationally with over 85 pieces of equipment for sale. We look forward to reporting back on the state of the ultra-class mining equipment market in our next report.

Global Market Conditions

The Wall Street Journal published a long article on the impact of the heavy equipment glut on equipment manufacturers. The reports suggest that conditions globally are similar to that being experienced in Australia.

The article noted that “Instead of buying a new $500,000 bulldozer or $300,000 excavator, many construction firms and other equipment users are renting or entering longer-term leases for machines to expand their fleets or replace worn out equipment. Dealers, in turn, are keeping smaller inventories of new wheel loaders, backhoes and other machinery. That is hurting sales for Caterpillar Inc., Volvo AB, Deere & Co and other manufacturers.”

The article further noted a rising trend in the US for new equipment sales for OEMs to be for leases “According to Barclays Research, almost 40% of construction-equipment sales financed by Deere’s credit unit are for leases, up from about 30% two years ago and double a decade ago. Half of Volvo’s financed construction equipment sales are for leases, up from a quarter ten years ago, according to Barclays. Volvo declined to comment on its strategy for used equipment and leases. Deere said it has recently lengthened lease terms and raised payments to drive down residual values at the end to of the leases to reflect lower prices for used equipment.”

If you’d like to read the whole article, this can be found at: https://www.wsj.com/articles/heavy-equipment-glut-weighs-on-machine-makers-1474191001

Road Transport

New Truck Sales

Heavy duty sector sales continue to track lower than the previous year, however a very strong November has meant the heavy duty segment is forecast to finish only slightly behind 2015. This means yearly sales are heading towards a fourth consecutive year of decline, down almost 15% on 2012 figures.

It’s not all bad news however with a stable economic outlook underpinned by flat growth expected to contribute to a modest uplift (2%) for heavy duty in 2017.

Kenworth has slipped a little in terms of market share but continues to dominate heavy duty at around a 20% share, Volvo not far behind on 16%, Isuzu at 13%, and Mack rounding out the top four at 9%.

Medium duty sector sales have maintained a trajectory to be 5% up year to date against the same period in 2015, making it the only sector to see growth. The strong performance in this sector is carrying the load for the trucking sector with the overall numbers increasing.

Isuzu stretches out in front of the pack in terms of medium-duty market share, seeing a slight increase in the quarter to 43%. There is a considerable gap then to Hino at 29% and another large gap back to Fuso at 14% and UD Trucks at 7%.  These figures are largely aligned with the same period in 2015 so market share in the sector is stable.

Used Truck Sales - Heavy Duty

In Q3 we have seen some broad trends in the heavy-duty sector reflected across our sites offset by some local variance.

The prime mover market can be summed up as volatile at best and depressed at worst depending on location.  Our Newcastle premises reflected this on a 2013 Mack Granite 6×4 Prime Mover (70t rated) making $15,000 under reserve at a price of $85,000 in July, only to be listed for auction again in August and selling right on the formal valuation figure of $100,000, with no change to the asset.

Some of this volatility may be explained by an influx of end users generally entering the truck market, forcing dealers to extend 5% to 10% higher against retail value than they would traditionally.

Our QLD premises report a massive decline in heavy spec trucks used in heavy haulage due to the continued reduction in the need to move large earthmoving equipment and the oversupply of heavy duty assets on the market.  A surge in livestock prices has offered some relief however, with rural operators upgrading their trucks to later model second-hand units.  These buyers are primarily interested in the North American makes with big bunks and spring suspension, totally discounting the day cab variants.

Buyers in Sydney and Melbourne have bought the bulk of the late model European trucks that have been sold out of QLD.  The versatility and manoeuvrability of the European cab over’s, and the automatic gear boxes, suit the metro work in those cities.

The tough market experienced in QLD sits in contrast to our premises in VIC and WA where we have observed slight increases in both enquiries and prices for heavier rated prime movers. It is important to note however that the WA market has been struggling for an extended period of time and this slight increase in enquiries is hardly a recovery in this state.

A little of this market positivity was embodied in a 2015 Kenworth T909 6×4 Prime Mover in Newcastle that generated a lot of pre-auction buzz with interested parties calling from all over the country. That carried through to Auction day with furious bidding from onsite, online, phone bidders and absentee bidders alike, selling the item for a remarkable $289,000 to an end user.  Several dealers in attendance remarked that this was equal to or more than could be achieved through a retail sale, proving there is strong demand for high-quality prime movers if they are marketed correctly.

We’ve reported extensively in previous reports that older trucks have been depressed in value, however, we had an unusual result in September out of Newcastle, selling a 2001 Mack Fleetliner 470 Prime Mover with very high kilometres. Throughout the year to date a truck of this description, 15 years of age and heavily worked, would normally be heavily devalued but on this occasion, the truck commanded a price of $26,000, which is approximately double what was expected given previous performances of such trucks over the past year.

This is traditionally the time of year that demand for water trucks rapidly increases but in 2016 the large rainfall experienced across the country has meant buyer appetite for water trucks is currently very low.  In September at our Newcastle premises, a 2012 International Iveco Acco with only 35,000km and a fully mine spec’d water tank with a hydraulic pump and water canon achieved $105,000. This same truck could reasonably be expected to sell for $150,000 if normal to dry conditions were being experienced.

With QLD and NSW’s bumper harvest just around the corner, we have seen good enquiry from the farming sector for the light tare prime movers with hydraulics.  These units allow the carrier to maximize the grain loaded in the bins without pushing over the legal payload.

Used Truck Sales - Medium & Lighter Duty

The third quarter of 2016 has again seen continued strength for small to medium-sized commercial trucks across all sites Australia wide, with tippers in particular doing well.

Demand is being driven by a rise in end users actively bidding, pushing towards sale results of 100% of retail value. Indicative of this trend is an ex-council 2000 Hino FD Tipper that sold for $40,000 at our Newcastle premises, easily 100% retail value. Now as a 16 year old truck this result might be somewhat of an outlier, however the large amount of trucks pushing towards sale results of 100% of retail value is a definite new trend being experienced across a number of sites.

Our VIC premises echo these findings, reporting small to medium size trucks continue to over achieve with many end users competing for them at auction. This includes a number of tilt tray trucks from distressed backgrounds, all of which achieved close to retail price.

Another in the 100% of retail value camp was a 2015 Isuzu NLR200 Tipper which sold for $38,500 at our Newcastle premises. This outstanding result was highlighted by a dealer present who noted his dealership had just offered the same trucks in brand new condition for a special sale price of $43,000.

An increase in end users buying through Slattery’s proprietary owned online simulcast platform and auctions in general, has also increased competition for dealers and pushed prices higher. The willingness of end users to buy through auction has meant dealers themselves are having to pay more than they have traditionally been willing to. As a result, in Newcastle, an ex-council 2008 Iveco Acco 2350 Rear Loaded Garbage Compactor truck was purchased by a dealer at 80% retail value, which again is 5% – 10% higher than traditional levels.

Trailers

Demand for trailers has generally been sluggish around the country.

Perth is seeing large numbers of 40-45’ flat deck trailers on the market with no improvement in prices from the first half of 2016.

With very little heavy yellow gear moving around QLD, the need for the platform trailers has all but dissolved, leading major players to sell some of these specialised trailers well below market value.

Older fridge trailers are also struggling, the cost of replacing faulty fridge motors in many cases outweighing the price of the entire trailer.

A new trend emerging is an increase in cattle crates on the market.  With the national cattle herd at a record low, there are consequently less cattle needing to be transported.  As a result, we have found cattle crates hard to move (particularly in QLD) and have seen a marked increase in finance repossessions in this sector.

On the positive side, there remains decent support for good quality, late model step deck trailers, particularly in NSW and WA. Semi-tipping trailers were popular with farmers expecting bumper crops however this slowed towards the end of the quarter as farmer’s focus moved to harvest.

Agriculture

Agriculture

There is continued strong support for good quality agriculture equipment on the back of improved seasonal conditions within the rural sector.

In WA, good winter rains early in the season led to farmers buying equipment early in readiness, purchasing has slowed however as they reach harvest.

In QLD, a rise in cattle prices has seen many farmers upgrading older equipment whilst they have the ability to do so, many purchasing the surplus telehandlers from the mining and gas sector.  These units provide greater height access, stability, and manoeuvrability than a conventional tractor.

In an outstanding sales result, a 2013 Komatsu 895 Log Forwarder achieved $300,000 in Queensland.

This Quarter has seen several tractors being offered on behalf of finance companies, councils, dealers and private vendors with strong results across the board, especially for good quality tractors from established brands.  This is highlighted by a McCormick CX 105 Tractor that sold for $38,000 at auction in NSW representing approximately 84% of retail value.  Both dealers and end users have been active in the tractor market.

An onsite agricultural auction was held in the month of September on a rural property in the New England region of NSW.  A fantastic crowd that turned out to create some very strong results including a Williams Seeders 20 Run Trailing Disc Drill selling for 95% of retail value at $36,000, and a 2010 Irtec 90G/D4 Travelling Irrigator selling for approximately 89% of retail value at $16,000.

In contrast to the positive outlook in the other states, VIC has seen an increase in the number of distress related valuation work and an increase in the supply of ag equipment, mainly in the dairy and grain areas.

Motor Vehicles

Secondary Motor Vehicle Market

Late model, low km cars are proving popular and are achieving close to retail value in most markets.  Vehicles within the 2005 to 2012 age bracket with close to or over 150,000km’s have dropped in price leading into the end of the year due to less buyer interest.

Resistance against the traditional six-cylinder sedans seems to be growing and we are finding it harder to home Holden Commodore and Ford Falcon sedans.  Utes and wagons are still reasonable as they are more popular with younger drivers.

The push towards the Turbo Diesel SUV has made moving the less economical V6 petrol SUV’s such as the Holden Captiva and Hyundai Santa Fe more difficult.  Clearly economy remains a major contributing factor in purchasing the family car.

Dealers will start to offer end of the year run-out deals which may see vehicles ease in price. We expect medium size passenger vehicles and unfavourable compact SUV’s will be impacted most significantly.

The Chinese makes such as Great Wall and Cherry are experiencing extremely strong buyer resistance due to a perception of unreliability.

QLD has seen a huge upswing in vehicle volume on the back of the mining downturn and the end of most of the CSG projects in the state.  This has meant an increase in repossessions.

Toyota still remains QLD’s favorite make, with the Land cruisers and Hilux’s attracting the greatest buyer competition.

In NSW wholesalers and dealers have been reporting that it has been hard to source quality stock. Commercial vehicles like the Toyota Hilux, Triton, Colorado and Hiace vans are all selling close to 90% of retail.  For example a 2013 Toyota Hilux SR5 Manual with 101,000 kms sold for $32,500 against a Glasses Guide retail price of $34,000. This evidences recent efforts to attract end users and strengthen Slattery’s results in the auto sector has been paying off.

The Holden Commodore V8 is still strong with results also selling above wholesale and quite close to retail.  This is evidenced in a 2010 SS Wagon valued at $17,000 and sold for $22,500, or 90% of its Glasses retail value.

WA report no improvement in vehicle sales in WA in the quarter, matching the 4.2% slump in new vehicle sales against the same period in 2015. Buyers are spoilt for choice and demanding better quality, low mileage vehicles at lower prices. An influx of Holden and Ford two door utes hit the market and saw suppressed pricing, whereas, Toyota Hilux and Ford Ranger four door utes are in demand and as such have maintained pricing.

2017 Outlook

Slattery’s Predicted Trends For 2017

The Trucking Industry Under Pressure

This year saw the trucking industry beset by two key regulatory changes that if nothing else, unsettled what was an already fragile sector.

The first was the now defunct Road Safety Remuneration Tribunal attempting to introduce minimum pay rates for owner drivers.  These drivers feared the changes would reduce their competitiveness against major trucking chains, many convinced it would put them out of business. Australia’s 35,000 owner drivers represent 75% of the industry, so any measure that has them struggling financially is going to significantly depress demand in the used truck market.

The second regulatory threat comes in the form of Chain of Responsibility (COR) laws. Drivers and operators have traditionally been the focus of road laws however under COR anybody – not just the driver – who has control over the transport task can be held responsible for breaches of road laws and may be legally liable.  The impact of COR has seen companies trending towards newer fleets and less sub-contracting as they attempt to minimise risk (and their liability).  This is bad news then for older model used truck sellers as these assets become more difficult to move.

These pressures compound existing structural issues in the trucking industry; a looming driver shortage (the average age of an Australian truck driver is 47, up from 43 just two years ago) and a fleet that at an average of 13.8 years is approximately double the truck age of Europe, North America, and Japan.

The Continued Charge of SUV's

Based on new vehicle sales data and 2017 forecasts of the same, it appears inevitable that SUV’s will overtake traditional passenger vehicles as the most popular category in Australia.  This is evidenced in the November 2016 numbers which have SUV’s growing to 38% market share and passenger vehicles easing 4.5% to a narrow lead of 40% market share.

This is a tremendous challenge for sellers of Australian passenger sedans (the Holden Commodore and Ford Falcon among them) that have been traditionally the mainstays of the used car market.  We have seen an easing in demand for these vehicles across all Slattery sites and as SUV’s surge there is every reason to expect this to continue.

Higher Coal Prices To Endure

In the wake of a global carbon emissions agreement in Paris, it was expected coal prices would take a significant hit. What wasn’t foreseen was the reduction in supply of coal from China, down 16% due to a government decree that coal mines would not operate on weekends, cutting the number of working days from 330 to 276.

Australian coal producers have responded, in November Glencore said it was going to reopen the Integra coalmine in the NSW Hunter Valley, just weeks after announcing it would reopen the Collinsville mine in Queensland.

Increased activity in the coal mining sector is obviously excellent news for sellers of coal mining related equipment and machinery, as well as specialist trucks and trailers employed to transport these yellow goods.