QUARTERLY REPORT & INDUSTRY WRAP UP

Second Quarter Report for 2017

The second quarter of 2017 maintained the positive momentum of previous quarters with solid results across all asset classes. Assets with civil construction applications performed particularly well and encouragingly assets in the heavier classes began to receive good interest, perhaps signalling the beginnings of a recovery in the mining sector where assets had been chronically in oversupply.

We’re not quite in boom times however, as older, poorer quality assets, and those with high kilometres or work hours remain very difficult to move and as a result, struggle to achieve above average sales results.

In terms of notable auctions for the period, the NSW Truck and Machinery auction in May was well stocked on the back of a large civil construction company and a smaller earthmoving company going into administration.  QLD hosted a massive crushing and screening auction in Banana, Victoria enjoyed a bumper Truck and Machinery auction buoyed by quality agriculture equipment, and Perth took the crown for most exotic asset listed in an auction via a McLaren 650S supercar.

On the staffing front, Slattery Asset Advisory welcomed a new General Manager in the form of the experienced Steve Martinelli.  Steve has worked with the likes of ANZ, Macquarie, HSBC, and most recently was Chief Executive at the Hunter United Credit Union. His imprint on our valuation capability will be felt in future quarters.

Driven largely by the need to counter low supply, we have seen an increase in interstate auction participants, most of which are leveraging our online simulcast technology.

Q2 has again highlighted that if you have high-quality stock to sell, the market is willing to pay good money for it.

The Quarter in short:

• Dealers have reported supply hurdles on heavy trucks, driving up auction prices and lowering their margins.
• Quality motor vehicles are in similarly short supply, leading to more interstate buying.
• New civil construction projects are fueling demand for applicable transport and machinery assets.
• Relief from the chronic oversupply of mining related assets may indicate a recovery for the sector is on the way.
• Agricultural assets were keenly contested in multiple auctions signaling confidence from farmers on the east coast.
• Healthy activity levels experienced in marine and aircraft asset categories.

Slattery Asset Advisory

Quarterly Sales Round Up

Road Transport

New Truck Sales

While not quite back to pre-GFC sales figures just yet, new truck sales remain on the road to recovery and are the healthiest they have been for the last nine years. A new benchmark was set for total sales in June, and another in the Light Duty truck segment specifically.

The Heavy Duty market volume for new sales was up 19% in July and is up 14.5% year to date for 2017. Volvo was the highest selling truck in July delivering 154 units, which was 1 more truck than Kenworth, knocking Kenworth off the top spot for the second time in as many months. Kenworth retains first place for year to date sales with 17.2% of the market and Volvo in second place with 15.2% market share.

All states have higher new truck sales for the year to date in July except for NT, which is down 30%. The greatest growth has been recorded in Queensland, which is up 39%. Tasmania is up 14%, WA up 15% and Victoria is up 10%.

New Light Duty truck deliveries reached 1,233 sold, breaking the pre-GFC record of 1,170 set 12 years ago in June 2005.

In the Medium Duty classification, Isuzu still leads from Hino and Fuso, with MAN making a notable push to become a factor.

Isuzu continues to dominate the Light Duty category, landing above 40 per cent market share for the first time this decade.  Second-placed Hino has borne the brunt of this slipping further behind.

Overall the truck market looks set for solid growth at least through the medium term, the back half of 2017 and 2018 inclusive.

Used Truck Sales

Good heavy trucks in short supply

Across the board, prices remained strong for good quality late model trucks, with dealers keen to replace sold stock and confident end users looking to either expand or update their fleets.

As a result, these newer, good quality transport assets are increasingly in short supply.  Interestingly, even QLD reported that demand had begun to outstrip supply for these assets, ending a significant period of oversupply.

Shortening supply has seen buyers increasingly looking to purchase interstate.  Our Perth office experienced this during the quarter, securing a significant number of sales to buyers from the eastern states primarily. This was coupled with increased demand locally due to large government infrastructure projects getting underway.

Late model prime movers continue to be in demand, during April premium prices were paid for a 2016 Scania R620 and a 2015 Volvo FH 540 XHSL, $225,000 and $214,000 respectively. These prices represent approximately 100% and 97% of the expected retail value.

In Victoria, a logistics business entering into liquidation became a major source of stock during May and June.  This saw late model, low kilometre prime movers, B Double sets being offered, resulting in a large turnout of both end user and dealer buyers.

Margins are narrowing for dealers

Several dealers have commented that the margin has decreased substantially over the past 12 months between wholesale and retail prices for the larger scale and high-quality assets. One dealer confided that he previously would purchase good quality prime movers, low loaders, and tippers at a margin of around 30% between his auction purchase price and the price he would then sell them items for at retail. He believes that this margin has decreased at least by half to 15% and still requires an investment of detailing and preparing an asset to a retail standard. We have seen this trend impact on the auction market as the amount of stock purchased by dealers has decreased as end users have become more active and aggressive in purchasing from auctions. This is great for vendors as higher prices are realised for them.

The narrowing margin between retail and wholesale is illustrated by an imported 2011 Hino 700 8×4 crane truck fitted with a 2013 Palfinger PK410002 Crane. This truck was purchased by an end user for 100% of retail value. It was a high-quality asset that could go straight to work and end users were willing to pay accordingly.

NSW’s April Truck & Machinery auction saw a good quality 2013 Kenworth K200 Prime Mover aggressively purchased by a dealer for $137,500, representing approximately 85% of the retail value. The dealer commented that due to the high-quality nature of the truck and being a premium make and model, the asset would not last long in his showroom and he was prepared to accept the lower margin.

Older trucks very difficult to move

Older prime movers regardless of make, particularly with higher kms and hours, have shown no improvement in demand or prices over the quarter.

The market deteriorated for older model and average to poor quality trucks across the board from prime movers all the way down to car licence table tops and tippers.

One prominent NSW dealer had commented that he has seen a weakening in the market from his dealership over the last quarter. He commented that this was primarily due to the trouble his dealership was having in sourcing good quality stock and the lack of demand for average to poor quality trucks. He estimated a 5% decrease in his company’s terms of trade over the last quarter.

Kenworth most popular

Kenworth continues to be the most popular make for used truck buyers, with Western Star and Volvo following.

Western Star prime movers, in good condition and with lower kms continue to be sought after by eastern states buyers. Variants with heavier specifications have proven to be popular in QLD.

Volvo trucks, popular in the mid weight range category, are showing signs of increased acceptance in the heavier weight class but the buyer base is still narrow when compared to Kenworth and Western Star.

Heavy haulage set to lift

The heavy haulage market has remained low but stable in recent times, but there are better times coming with the industry expecting to see an end to the oversupply issues leading to growth in the coming 6-12 months.

The mining industry in Queensland has faced some challenging times in the past but there is now light at the end of the tunnel. A number of large projects have already been awarded, along with the announcement in the recent Queensland State budget committing to the Bruce Highway Caloundra Road to Sunshine Motorway upgrade and stage one of Ipswich Motorway: Rocklea to Darra upgrade.

Adani has also committed to pre-construction works starting in the Third Quarter 2017.

Heavy machinery will be required for all of these projects and therefore will need to be transported, so we expect heavy haulage assets will become more valuable as a result.

Small to Medium Trucks in demand

There was a shortage over the quarter for small to medium sized commercial trucks. Those that were listed for auction were generally average to poor condition and the prices achieved for these assets reflected accordingly.

The tipper market was particularly strong as a result, with buyers paying premiums for assets due to an increase in civil works within NSW and Vic.

Small to mid-size Pantech and flat top trucks continue to have a strong following, however, buyers are price sensitive with regard to their age, condition, and kms on the clock.

Isuzu are by far the most popular in the 6-8 tonne mid to heavy rigid space with these makes being of equal value in the small weight class.

Drop Deck and Side Tipper trailers improving

We are seeing an increase in demand for Drop Deck trailers by farmers and station owners, particularly for carting feed bales.

Low Loaders, Floats and Drop Deck trailers with ramps are in short supply and sought after both in WA and eastern states for relocating small to medium civil equipment. These are now commanding stronger prices than the preceding quarter. This is a very positive sign for assets that suffered a significant slump in value post the downturn in the mining sector as there was a reduced need to relocate mining and earthmoving assets.

The Northlink road infrastructure project has finally begun in WA and has created interest in medium size civil and road building equipment, in particular, side tipper trailers.

A number of ore road haulage companies in WA’s North and South West have exited the market creating a supply of side tippers. These road train combinations proved very popular and resulted in a significant uptick in prices from $30-35,000 at the beginning of the quarter to $55-60,000 in June.

We have continuing enquiries for side tippers of any make as buyers are in need and less selective.

Q2 also saw a 2013 Chris’s Body Builders Quad Axle Tipping Dog Trailer sell in NSW for a whopping 109% of retail value. This huge price was driven by two end users competing very keenly. The successful purchaser was an in-room buyer whilst the underbidder was bidding online. Both parties have contracts on the large Westconnex infrastructure project in Western Sydney and wanted to put the trailer straight to work. Both buyers were willing to pay above retail price so they could avoid waiting for a new tipping trailer to be built.

Competitors snap up assets

Where we saw high-quality assets hit the market through circumstances like a liquidation, there were no shortage of buyers from the same industry looking to pick up the assets and put them right back to work. This saw a 2011 Isuzu FTR 900 Table Top and a 2013 CIMC Tri Axle 14m flat top trailer both sell for 100% of retail to previous competitors of a construction company that had become insolvent.

Mining & Earthmoving

New Equipment Sales

Market leader Caterpillar reported strong second quarter sales off the back of improving demand.  Key markets have started to recover lost ground and while this isn’t a uniform recovery by any means, sales were higher in all three primary product segments the company operates in, led by Construction Industries, followed by Resource Industries, and then Energy & Transportation.

This has seen Cat raise their full year revenue and profit outlook.  Sales were up in the construction industry in Asia Pacific, driven by strong end-user demand in China for construction equipment, and excavators in particular. Through the first half of the year, the 10 tonne and above excavator industry in China was up about 130% from last year.

The most significant news in the Cat report is that conditions may be right to call the beginnings of a recovery in the values and saleability of mining assets. Caterpillar noted that increases in commodity prices have driven increases in commodity production driving the need for maintenance and rebuild activities. Utilisation on trucks is up 4% from last year. The parked fleet continues to come down. And for the fifth quarter in a row, parts sales have increased to support rebuild and maintenance needs as well as higher utilisation of fleets in the mines. It was noted in our last quarterly report that parts sales in Australia were singled out as a material change in Cat’s sales figures. This aligns with our belief that many operators had been pushing out their maintenance and rebuild schedules and this is now finally being undertaken by operators.

Order rates are also improving, with dealer inventory holding flat for the second successive quarter after 4 years of reductions.  Sales increases and favourable dealer inventory changes were broad-based across all regions. Despite these improving signs, sales volumes remain at historic lows.

In summary Cat predict:

• Construction Industries sales for the year to be up 10% to 15% versus the previous outlook of flat to up 5%.
• Resource Industries sales to be up 20% to 25% for the full year versus the previous outlook of up 10% to 15%.
• Energy & Transportation sales are forecasted to be up 5% to 10% for the year versus the previous outlook of about flat.

For More – 2Q17 Caterpillar Quarterly Results

Used Equipment Sales

Large infrastructure projects driving demand

Due to the increased civil activity that has been associated with the various infrastructure projects in NSW, there has been continued demand for earthmoving assets as reported in our previous reports.

At the NSW Truck & Machinery auction in May, a 2009 Volvo L120F Wheel Loader was sold for 100% of retail with a hammer price of $126,000.

The Northlink road infrastructure project in WA has also finally begun and this has created interest in medium size civil and road building equipment, in particular, side tipper trailers.

All Slattery locations note good quality Graders are still in short supply and highly sought after.

Early signs of a mining recovery

An interesting result from the quarter that may indicate what a recovery of sorts for the mining sector, was the sale of a 2004 Caterpillar D10R Dozer. With the well-documented downturn within the mining industry, the demand price for these assets plummeted faster than anyone could have imagined. However, a recent bullish mood in the industry has seen demand once again increase for these assets and the D10R dozer sold for over $150,000, an impressive 82% retail value and a significant increase on what would have been achieved twelve months ago.

In QLD the mining sector is still quiet however the market is on the move with some exciting times ahead. The recent Adani announcement that the Carmichael projects will generate 10,000 direct and indirect jobs, with pre-construction works starting in the September Quarter 2017. The Palaszczuk Government is throwing its support behind a new $60 million Atherton Tableland biorefinery that could generate 130 regional jobs and Auctus Resources Pty Ltd is also currently expanding operations at the former Mungana mine site located West of Cairns. The operation consists of both open cut and underground mines, feeding a process plant capable of producing multiple concentrates with an estimated workforce of approximately 100.

We expect that the work needed to be undertaken on these projects will see demand in Qld for large civil construction and mining equipment spike resulting in higher values around the country.

International demand continues

We continue to benefit from healthy levels of international demand for mining and earthmoving equipment, with regular enquiries coming through our locations as these assets are offered for sale. These enquiries have been primarily from the Middle East for earthmoving assets and Ireland for crushing assets.

The international buyer audience for mining and earthmoving assets remains in squarely our thinking when planning remarketing campaigns.

Demand for small to medium assets solid

Demand persists for small to medium earthmoving assets. Excavators up to 30 tonne, Articulated Dump Trucks up to 40 tonne, and Dozers are still good stock that attract competition at auction.

A 2014 Case CX80C 8 Tonne excavator sold for 82% of retail value. This asset was being sold on behalf of a major financial institution, was in low hours and in good condition, and end users competed well for it.

The NSW Truck & Machinery auction in May saw a 2013 Manitou MRT 2150+ Telehandler sell to an end user for 98% of retail value. This is an asset of the highest quality and the level of enquiry reflected that fact.  Two competing companies bid aggressively for this asset, driving the excellent sale price.

Crushing & Screening on the rise

A large number of ore crushing and screening assets have hit the market during the past quarter, putting downward pressure on prices of these assets.

While we have experienced increased demand for the crushing of Lithium in WA, the parent rock is much harder than iron ore, and buyers are looking for low hour/low tonnage machines in excellent condition to take care of that task.

Motor Vehicles

New Car Sales

A strong second quarter for new car sales has seen Australians buying and selling more new vehicles than they ever have before.

2017 is now on track to be a record year after the 5% drop in sales for April was countered by successive record months in May and June. New vehicle sales for May were up 6.4% on 2016, with June recording a 4.4% increase over the previous June high.

Annual SUV sales growth of 5% to 233,498 units exceeded the combined sales of all conventional passenger vehicles including hatches, sedans, wagons, people-movers, coupes and convertibles (230,267). Medium SUVs are the driving force in the category. The Mazda CX-5, Hyundai Tucson, Toyota RAV4 and Nissan X-Trail have sales up by more than 16% this year.

The flight from passenger vehicles saw sales decline once again, this time by almost 7% cent in the first 6 months of the year. Everything from micro cars through to upper-large cars went backwards against 2016. Only sports cars are notably up, thanks to the massively popular Ford Mustang.

The strongest area of market-wide growth was in commercial vehicles, where light commercials — utes and most vans — grew in popularity by 5.4%, taking their market share to about 20%, equating to one-in-five of all vehicle sales.

The sales scorecard for the first six months of this year when all ute variants are combined: 23,378 for HiLux versus 21,638 for Ranger.

Private buyers have the edge on business fleet buyers – 51% versus 41% though the gap has narrowed over 2016. Government and rental-company fleet purchases make up the remainder.

Toyota Corolla and Mazda3 posted sales declines as buyers continue to switch to compact SUVs that fit in the same size parking space but have a taller driving position and roomier cabins and cargo areas.

Used Car Sales

Dealers looking for quality stock

Motor dealers are still finding it difficult to source decent quality second-hand vehicles to stock their yards and are looking to a broader list of suppliers. Good quality vehicles with low kms are in short supply, with dealers bidding aggressively to secure this ‘Lot Ready’ stock. In this category, local dealers compete heavily with interstate buyers.

It shouldn’t go unmentioned that some smaller dealers in the Brisbane area have chosen to close their businesses due to the greater competition being experienced and a lack of saleable stock.  They’ve reacted to these challenges by leaving the industry altogether. This is all the more evident as you drive through the “magic mile” in  Moorooka with at least 9 empty used car yards.

We have experienced some extreme fluctuation on vehicle prices through the quarter due to some of the bigger players buying up all available good quality stock. This has resulted in some prices at auction achieving above well above the Glass’s Guide retail price guidance.

As an example, AHG, the largest Auto retailer in WA, has launched its 2^nd warehouse style fixed price retail facility in Perth, with plans to sell an additional 300 vehicles per month. This immediately puts increased pressure on smaller dealerships.

Commercials remain strong

Toyota Hilux was again the pick of the quarter with regard to new vehicle sales, and this momentum flowed down to premium prices being achieved for used vehicles. The used prices gain even more strength over rival models as the vehicles age, Toyota product continues to hold up significantly better than other brands in the used car space.

The Ford Ranger model is again the second vehicle of choice for new vehicle sales overall, and again this reflected in the used car market with a good supply of these being sold at auction whilst commanding comparatively strong prices.

Diesel SUV’s & 4×4’s still popular

We continue to see strong returns in the SUV and Dual Cab market with diesel models still preferred over petrol. Landcruiser and Prado, in particular, remain very strong.

In NSW a Land Rover Defender went for a premium price to say the least, coming in at 139% of retail.  The model is discontinued so you simply can not get them anymore which makes them quite rare and very popular at auction. Interestingly it was sold to a wholesaler so there must be a profit margin factored into that sale price as well.

Older vehicles and V6 sedans struggling

Lower demand for both new and used vehicles has resulted in a significant decline in prices for older, poorer quality vehicles.

Used vehicles with high kms, in poor condition and/or presented without registration whilst still readily saleable, are less sought after and therefore command softer prices.

Commodores and Falcons are suffering a larger than normal decline in resale value as the market steers away from the large six cylinder vehicles.

Following the trend from previous quarters, Holden Captiva and Holden Cruze are still proving very hard to move.

WA bucks the positive trend

In contrast to the growth experienced in all other states in the quarter, new car sales fell again in WA, down by 5.1% for the quarter.

The lack of demand has flowed through to the used market with generally softer prices across most makes/models. Buyers are experiencing greater choice in used vehicles and therefore demanding better quality vehicles for their money.

Agriculture

Commodity prices powering QLD boom

Commodity prices in the Queensland rural sector are not showing any signs of a decline and the majority of farmers are still benefiting from the best returns in years.

As a result, we have seen owners upgrading their fleet and equipment with either new or second-hand assets, either way, the agriculture industry currently has an increased level of confidence that is being noticed by additional competition and auction returns.

Our regional auction site in Roma has recently posted its second biggest auction result in terms of gross sales, illustrating the buoyancy of the sector. We also noted a record amount of local buyers participating in the sale.

Harvesters tough to predict

Harvesters remain fickle as we see the trend continue for agriculture operators to employ traveling seasonal contractors for the harvest. This is, in part, a reflection of their preference to avoid owning their own equipment that will then sit idle for most of the year.  but it also weakens demand for those assets.

The flow on effect in the asset remarketing space is a palpable weakening of demand for those assets.

Tractor and farming implement demand rising

All the better Tractor makes (John Deere, Case, New Holland, Claas) have seen increased competition in the 80 -280HP Range.  We have also seen similarly increased competition in farming implements (Slashers, balers, small ploughs) as buyers look to benefit from the $20,000 immediate tax deduction on new and used plant.