Quarter One 2022

  • New truck sales are booming. The first quarter of 2022 saw a total of 8,817 vehicles – a 5.9% increase on 2021 sales.
  • At this rate, 2022 is on track to beat previous annual record numbers set in 2018 and 2008.
  • Caterpillar’s global results in the first-quarter of 2022 have increased 14% to $13.6 billion.
  • National Agricultural machinery sales (new and used) are expected to reach/exceed $4B in 2022.
  • The Agriculture machinery market is still experiencing stock shortages and delivery delays are between 9-12 months.
  • New vehicle sales over the first quarter of the 2022 calendar year sit at a cumulative 262,436 units, down 0.5% on 2021.
    Supply chain issues still plagued the automotive industry, with dealers saying they could easily have surpassed last year’s sales if they had the stock.
  • The Tesla Model 3 jumped into the top 5 models for March and number 1 for passenger cars with the Model 3 selling 3,097. However, this does come with a warning as it was their first-time reporting to VFACTS and it appears their quarterly numbers were weighted to that one month.

Road Transport

Key Point Summary
  • New truck sales are booming. The first quarter of 2022 saw a total of 8,817 vehicles – a 5.9% increase on 2021 sales.
  • Isuzu led the first quarter of 2022 sales across all segments.
  • The 2022 federal election is predicted to have an impact on truck sales.
  • Low interest rates, less traffic from COVID and government incentives for investments mean that 2022 is still considered to be a good to buy a truck.

New Road Transport

The last two records in new truck sales were reached in 2008 with 8,267units sold in the first quarter and then 10 years later in 2018 with 8,675 units sold in the first quarter and 41,628 over the whole year. The first quarter of 2022 has trumped these previous records with 8,817 trucks and vans sold year to date (YTD). New truck sales have been booming, with a 492 (5.9%) increase on 2021’s sales and at this rate, 2022 is on track to beat 2018’s annual record numbers.

In March alone, the road transport industry increased by 239 on last year’s sales with 3,797 trucks delivered to customers. All categories have shown growth compared to the previous year especially the heavy-duty sector with an increase of 23.6% on last year.

Year-to-date 8,817 trucks and vans have been delivered in Australia, up 492 units (or 5.9%) over last year.

Federal elections have proven in previous years to impact sales, influencing manufacturing companies to be more conservative with capital expenditure.

There are however headwinds appearing: a substantial increase in fuel prices; reduction in fuel rebate for transport operators; increase in interest rates; higher replacement costs and/or unbudgeted maintenance as assets delivery times impact regular operating cycles; grueling regulations taking a toll on operators and finding drivers remains difficult. Despite these obstacles, there is still confidence in the road transport industry.

Heavy-duty trucks

There were 3,012 new registrations recorded in the heavy-duty sector, showing an increase of 23.6% on last year’s first quarter results.

Kenworth kept its commanding lead in the first quarter with 647 YTD, growing registrations by 30.1% from last year.

Isuzu ended up in second place with 490 YTD, showing a significant increase of 67.8% of registrations compared to last year’s first quarter. It was unexpected that Isuzu outperformed Volvo in the heavy-duty sector as Volvo had been competing with Kenworth for first place in 2019 and 2020. Supply chain issues cause Volvo’s fall to third place. Volvo group does own the Mack and UD brands in Australia, so taking this into account the Swedish group is still a heavy weight.

Top 10 Ranked New Heavy-Duty Trucks

BRAND SALES CHANGE
Kenworth 647 +30.1%
Isuzu 490 +67.8%
Volvo 447 +42.4%
Mack 200 68.1%
UD Trucks 179 +79%

Medium-duty trucks

There were 1,651 (YTD) new registrations recorded in the medium-duty sector with an increase of 12.9% from last year.

Isuzu is the perennial performer in the medium sector with 753 (YTD) units sold. This shows a growth of 31.3% on last year’s first quarter registrations. This is a strong brand with outstanding service, production and customer support. In second place was Hino with a YTD total of 510 representing a slight fall of 0.8% compared to last year. Fuso followed with 296 units showing an increase of 10.9%.  IVECO is sitting in fourth place with 26 new registrations for the first quarter, a sharp fall of 29.7%. UD Trucks is fifth, its 22 units represent a fall of 12%.

The reason for Iveco’s decline in sales is the European brand is pulling production out of the Australian market. It is switching its focus and expertise to customising a fully imported range of models to meet the needs of Australian and New Zealand customers.

Isuzu consistently has the most vehicles registered and received the second highest percentage increase from last year. Hino and Fuso still have a long way to close the gap with Isuzu in sales.

Top 10 Ranked Medium-Duty Truck Brands

BRAND SALES CHANGE
Isuzu 753 +31.3%
Hino 510 -0.8%
Fuso 296 +10.9%
IVECO 26 -29.7%
UD Trucks 22 -12%

Light-duty trucks

There were 3,219 (YTD) new registrations recorded in the light-duty sector with an increase of 8.4% on last year.

Once again Isuzu came out on top with 1,207 units sold, increasing 3.3% from last year. Behind Isuzu was Hino, with 761 units (up 10.8%). In third place was Fuso with 686 units (up 22.7%), then IVECO with 210 units (up 23.5%) and FIAT with 158 units (up 23.4%).

The numbers highlight the dominance of Isuzu and the decline in the Iveco numbers.

Last-mile delivery remains popular as consumer buying behaviour continues online, thus driving light-duty sales performance.

Top 10 Ranked Light-Duty Truck Brands

BRAND SALES CHANGE
Isuzu 1,207 +3.3%
Hino 761 +10.8%
Fuso 686 +22.7%
IVECO 210 +23.5%
FIAT 158 +23.4%

 

 

Secondary Road Transport

Because of the supply chain issues in the new truck market, the supply of second-hand heavy-duty, medium-duty and light-duty trucks at auction has been subdued. Other factors are impacting the secondary market, such as the lack of insolvency events due to government incentives and the banks and ATO not having an appetite for foreclosure or collections. This is set to change in quarter two, with the ATO issuing a large increase of assessment notices in April and May.

Sales are still strong in the secondary heavy-duty category with our QLD team selling a 2014 Western Star 4864 FXB Prime Mover with 1,252,031kms for $107,000, showing 100% of retail value.

With little stock available, medium and light-duty trucks are also selling well at auction. For example, in NSW we recently sold a 2007 ISUZU FVZ 1400 Tipper with 179,000kms for $38,200, showing 90% retail value. Then, our team in VIC sold a 2014 Hino 700 Tipper with 246,441kms for $121,425, showing 90% of retail. Even older, non-mobile trucks are selling well because of the shortage of trucks in the second-hand market.

Trailers are also selling well with strong demand for low loaders, tippers, side tippers, curtainsiders, and Pantech’s. The high demand for trailers was recently evident in QLD. We sold a 2013 GLT Tri-Axle A&B Tipper Set for $255,500, reaching 100% of retail value.

We expect to see continued demand for quality late-model trucks and trailers to at least mid-2022.

Assets Kms/Hours Price
Achieved
% of
retail
State
2018 DAF CF85 Prime Mover 282,684 126,000 90 QLD
2011 Volvo FM 8x4 Tautliner 646,135 106,000 100 QLD
2014 Western Star 4864 FXB Prime Mover 1,252,031 107,000 100 QLD
2016 Scania R560 Prime Mover 820,203 97,000 95 QLD
2018 UD GWB Tipper 300,329 175,000 100 QLD
2016 Isuzu FRR 500 Tipper 110,820 65,280 95 VIC
2012 Isuzu NPR 300 Tipper With Crane *Ex Council* 99,121 42,759 85 VIC
2014 Hino 700 Tipper 246,441 121,425 90 VIC
2012 Hino GH 1728 Beavertail Tray 608,283 71,372 75 VIC
2016 UD MK11 Flat Top 325,000 42,800 95 NSW
2014 UD PKC8E Flat Top 500,000 45,700 95 NSW
2014 UD MK11 Flat Top 530,000 29,500 90 NSW
2016 Isuzu FRR Pantech W/ Tailgate Loader 140,000 71,800 95 NSW
2013 Isuzu FRR Curtainsider W/ Tailgate Loader 242,000 62,000 95 NSW
2007 Isuzu FVZ 1400 Tipper 179,000 38,200 90 NSW
2016 BCI FBC6127 Coach 132,000 88,350 95 NSW
2015 Volvo FM Series 4 Tipper Set 860,000 212,200 95 NSW

Mining & Earthmoving

Key Point Summary
  • Profitability in the new earthmoving sector accelerated in the 2022 first quarter.
  • Caterpillar’s global results in the first quarter of 2022 sales and revenues increased 14% to $13.6 billion.
  • Infrastructure and Engineering Construction projects leading the way for machinery sales.
  • A solid pipeline of work is building confidence.

New Mining & Earthmoving

Profitability in the new earthmoving sector decreased for the Asia Pacific area in the 2022 first quarter. Caterpillar’s global results showed that their sales and revenues increased 14% to $13.6 billion this quarter, compared with $11.9 billion in the first quarter of 2021.

Numerous external factors such as government initiatives, rising infrastructure development, and construction activity are building confidence for the future in the Asia/Pacific region.

Infrastructure spending across this country is increasing, with all state and federal governments committing to increases to help drive the economy.

Infrastructure outlook: 2022 and beyond

Infrastructure outlook: 2022 and beyond

Infrastructure spending is looking to peak around 2024 with projects across each state, so demand for machinery should be set to increase. NSW is getting the larger share of this work, but VIC and SA also have some of the largest scale projects, with Rail being a key feature.

2020-21 Australian infrastructure funding levels, ranked by share of Budget expenditure

2020-21 Australian infrastructure funding levels, ranked by share of Budget expenditure

 

Secondary Mining & Earthmoving

Good quality, low hour earthmoving equipment continues to sell extremely well, with supply chain issues continuing to cause delays in delivery times for new machinery, positively affecting the second-hand and auction markets. Historically low interest rates are also driving the secondary market, along with Infrastructure spending as part of post-COVID stimulus programs being rolled out around the country, as well as the instant asset write-off.

Smaller earthmoving equipment such as mini excavators and skid steer loaders are short in supply and are also selling extremely well. For example, our QLD team recently sold a 2018 Mustang 1650R Skid Steer Loader with 1,062 hrs for $25,700, showing 100% retail value. Then, our WA team sold a 2014 Caterpillar 289D with 1,953 hrs for $92,600, showing 100% of retail value.

While older, higher hour machines, particularly excavators, are not selling as well in some states, our VIC yard has reported a high interest in excavators. Recently the VIC team sold a 2018 Kubota U55-4 Tracked Excavator with 2,974 hrs for $48,198, showing 70% of retail value. Then, they sold a 2012 Cat 305.5E Excavator with 5,120 hrs for $34,924, showing 85% of retail value.

Overall, the market is strong, and the wet weather is generating more maintenance work, roadworks, cleanup operations etc, and this is building more confidence for the year ahead.

Assets Kms/Hours Price
Achieved
% of
retail
State
2018 Mustang 1650R Skid Steer Loader 1,062 25,700 100 QLD
2017 Caterpillar 301.7DCR Excavator 1,342 32,600 90 QLD
2018 Sumitomo SH80BS-6A Excavator 1,732 68,000 90 QLD
2010 Caterpillar 637G Scraper 20,4769 498,000 100 QLD
2005 Caterpillar DP150 Forklift 7,395 62,200 105 QLD
Toyota Huski 4SDK4 Skid Steer 1,564 16,776 70 VIC
2018 Kubota U55-4 Tracked Excavator 2,974 48,198 70 VIC
2012 Cat 305.5E Excavator 5,120 34,924 85 VIC
2014 Caterpillar 289D 1,953 92,600 100 WA
2010 Reed B50A Concrete Pump 2,237 45,700 90 NSW
2011 Nissan UNS161 High Reach 1,160 5,700 95 NSW
Soilmec R-210 Drill/ Piling Rig 7,900 299,200 95 NSW
2006 Formosa 495 Aluminium Boat 435 14,300 100 NSW

Agriculture

Key Point Summary
  • National Agricultural machinery sales (new and used) expected to reach/exceed $4B in 2022.
  • Stock shortages and delivery delays up to 9-12 months.
  • The Australian agricultural machinery market is projected to register a Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.3% during the forecast period (2022-2027).
  • National combine harvester sales up 15% (rolling 12 months).
  • Tractor sales in March down 19% on last year. Port staffing issues and shipping delays hamper sales of new tractors.
  • Dealers and end users gearing up for a productive season.

New Agriculture

The Australian agricultural machinery market is projected to register a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 7.3% during the forecast period (2022-2027). COVID has had a significant impact on the Australian agricultural machinery market. The supply chains were disrupted, and manufacturing industries were closed due to restrictions aimed at containing coronavirus, which, in turn, affected the availability of agricultural inputs and operations of hiring agricultural machinery service providers. The shortage of labour and scarce availability of raw materials resulted in decreased production efficiency for agricultural machinery manufacturing. The agriculture labour shortages, especially for harvest, were being temporarily filled by aviation workers, particularly pilots. With their level of mechanical knowledge and skill for operating and taking care of complex machinery, they were a great fit. With the aviation industry returning to normal, this labour will no longer be available.

Currently, Australian agriculture is in very good shape with seasonal conditions and high commodity prices driving the market. Although supply chain issues are still a factor. In some instances, agricultural equipment suffers delivery lead times of 9 to 12 months.

Tractors and combined harvesters remain the most popular asset type with a well-developed system for manufacturing and sales by several regional and local manufacturers. Apart from the increased efficiency, mechanisation in agriculture is driven by the country’s growing demand for precision agricultural practices.

After two record-breaking years, the tractor market is starting to slow down. The Tractor and Machinery Association of Australia’s (TMA) latest report showed a 19% drop in new tractor sales in March 2022 compared to the same month last year and is now 13% behind the year to date.

The TMA is reporting the slowdown was not attributed to a decline in demand, but instead caused by supply chain issues and problems at the ports leading to lengthy processing delays and heavily reduced numbers of stock arriving on Australian shores.

In NSW, sales were down 21% for March and were 10% behind the year prior. While Queensland was down 11% to sit 5% behind the year. Victoria was 12% behind last March to be 10.4% down YTD. Sales in Western Australia also recorded another drop – 35% for the month to be 34% (YTD) off, while sales in South Australia also dropped 32% (YOY). Tasmania sales dropped further by 17%, while sales in the Northern Territory were steady.

In better news, Baler sales enjoyed a 36% lift in March compared with the same month last year, while sales of out-front mowers were down by six%.

Overall, the agriculture industry should be well supported by the Government’s 2022 budget announcement detailing an investment of $2 billion to accelerate growth in regional areas. Under this program, the Government has identified 12 key focus areas where the money will be channeled into supply chain resilience, education infrastructure (in regional Australia), modern manufacturing, export market development, and more.

Secondary Agriculture

The second-hand and auction markets have also been strong, with tractors, combine harvest, and other agricultural equipment in high demand. The federal government’s Temporary Full Expensing program, which replaces the Instant Asset Write Off scheme, will continue to support demand. The good seasonal conditions and historically low interest rates are also driving the market.

WA farmers had a bumper season, and we have seen increased spending from them. Lead times on both new tractors and tractor parts have increased, creating some solid competition and increased returns on secondary machines.

There has been very little agricultural stock coming through the auctions in Victoria, but what did come through was quickly sold. An ex-council 2014 Toro Groundmaster 360 Mower with catcher showing 1,516 hours was put to auction, selling to a dealer for $18,604 i.e. 75% of retail value. QLD also presented a 2014 Massey Ferguson 5613 Tractor with 16,863 hours to auction, selling for $23,000, 90% of retail value.

Assets Kms/Hours Price
Achieved
% of
retail
State
2014 Massey Ferguson 5613 Tractor 16,863 23000 90 QLD
2014 Toro Groundmaster 360 Mower with Grass Catcher 1,516 18,604 75 VIC

Automotive

Key Point Summary
  • Sales over the first quarter of the 2022 calendar year sit at a cumulative 262,436 units, down 0.5% on 2021.
  • Supply chain issues still plagued the industry with dealers saying they could easily have surpassed last year’s sales if they had the stock.
  • Toyota dominated the overall sales charts with a 21.6% market share.
  • While historically, 60% of the used market was less than 2yrs old, these newer vehicles now comprise of less than 5% of the market.
  • Tesla Model 3 jumped into the top 5 models for March and number 1 for passenger cars with the Model 3 selling 3,097. This does come with a warning however as it was their first-time reporting to VFACTS and it appears their quarterly numbers were weighted to that one month.

New Automotive

Australia’s new vehicle sales grew 1.2% in March 2022 to 101,233 units – though once again, suppliers say they could have sold a lot more if they had stock to deliver.

Sales over the first quarter of the 2022 calendar year sit at a cumulative 262,436 units, down 0.5% on 2021’s running tally over the same period.

Toyota dominated the sales charts with a 21.6% market share, 76,003 sales, and the two top-selling vehicles. Mazda finished second with 37,213 sales and 11.1% share.

Mitsubishi had a bumper quarter with solid supply, moving 29,816 cars and growing 40.1% over March 2021, leaving Kia to leapfrog its big brother Hyundai to round out the monthly top five.

Top 10 Brands Quarter 1:

Rank Model Sales vs YTD ‘21
1 Toyota 76,003 –1%
2 Mazda 37,213 –1%
3 Mitsubishi 29,816 +17%
4 Kia 23,632 +3%
5 Hyundai 22,845 –8%
6 Ford 18,357 –20%
7 MG 16,040 +37%
8 Isuzu 11,838 +9%
9 Nissan 10,372 –34%
10 Subaru 9,796 –28%

Toyota’s domination was helped by its HiLux and RAV4 occupying the top two spots on the model sales charts, ahead of the Ford Ranger, Mitsubishi Triton and Mazda CX-5.

Top 10 Models March Quarter 1:

Rank Model Sales YTD vs YTD ‘21
1 Toyota HiLux 19,211 +5%
2 Toyota RAV4 13,862 –0.1%
3 Ford Ranger 13,241 –12%
4 Mitsubishi Triton 12,852 +49%
5 Mazda CX-5 10,951 +15%
6 Toyota Prado 9,205 +72%
7 Isuzu D-Max 8,646 +15%
8 Hyundai i30 7,924 –9%
9 Toyota Corolla 7,239 –23%
10 MG ZS 7,220 +33%

Diving into to EV’s, Tesla lead the way and are now reporting sales figures to VFACTS. Tesla has long refused to publish its sales in the monthly Federal Chamber of Automotive Industry VFACTS database. In March the Model 3 monthly sales figure made it the nation’s fifth top-selling vehicle overall, but in the passenger car-specific sales race it topped the charts ahead of the Hyundai i30 and Toyota Corolla. This does come with a warning however as it was their first-time reporting to VFACTS and it appears their quarterly numbers were weighted to that one month. Their sales hit the brakes in April, just 52 examples of the Model 3 sedan were reported as sold in April 2022, a fraction compared to the 3097 reported as sold the month prior.

Tesla’s April 2022 data highlights the fact that monthly sales figures don’t tell the full story. Using sales data for the first three months of year, Tesla is approximately in 15th position. This places Tesla ahead of Honda and Audi but behind Subaru and BMW – among Australia’s most popular brands. Tesla has been joined by new market entrant, and fellow electric carmaker, Polestar from Volvo pedigree.

 

Top 10 BEV & PHEV models Quarter 1:

 Model Q1 2022 sales
Tesla Model 3 4,417
Mercedes-Benz EQA 318
Hyundai Kona EV 304
Hyundai Ioniq EV 206
Mercedes-Benz EQC 172
Porsche Taycan 160
Kia EV6 141
Hyundai Ioniq 5 133
Volvo XC40 Recharge 131
Nissan Leaf 119

Secondary Automotive

Supply chain issues continue to affect stock and as a result the second-hand and auction market’s demand for quality, late model low kilometre motor vehicles is still strong.  Many buyers are still electing to buy second-hand rather than wait for delivery of new stock.  Auction results are still strong, although we did see prices in most categories soften slightly in late 2021 and early 2022, however, the recent flooding in Northern NSW and Queensland has seen auction prices spike again as buyers seek to replace written off flood damaged vehicles.  The most popular vehicles at auction with both dealers and end user buyers have been dual cab utilities, low kilometre prestige vehicles and SUV / Wagons.

The second-hand market make up of aged cars has dramatically changed due to these stock shortages. 60% of the used market was historically less than 2 years old. Today that is less than 5% which is making it nearly impossible to find a late model dealer demo or near-new used car for a reasonable price. Owners and companies are holding on to their vehicles for longer and the buyer is paying a premium for anything that goes up for sale.

No real change in this space from Q4 2021. Late model, low mileage “dealer retail quality” vehicles are performing well, especially 4×4 Commercials and SUV’s. Once again, this is due to the limited supply of new vehicles and the quality of second hand stock. Higher km, average condition vehicles have dropped back to pre-covid values as there appears to be an abundance of these available. Damaged vehicles certainly slowed off as parts availability for specific models was limited. Fuel thirsty vehicles took a bit of a dive, given world events pushing up fuel prices.

Sales rates under the hammer have declined whilst vendor price expectations are high. Post auction clearance is steady, with most vendors prepared to meet the market. We are still seeing solid results, though, as there is such strong demand for used vehicles. We saw a 2016 Toyota Hilux SR with a huge 180,918kms on the clock still sell for 100% of the retail price at $40,100.  The SUV market is still showing its popularity, with a 2019 Mazda CX-9 showing 38,941 kms selling for $46,900, which is 90% of retail value.

This quarter we also achieved some excellent sales of luxury and prestige vehicles. We completed the sale of two Lamborghini Huracan’s. The first 2017 Lamborghini Huracan LP showing 17,789 kms sold for $375,000, which is 100% of the retail price. The second is a 2017 Lamborghini Huracan Performante sold for $424,100, achieving 92% of its retail price.

In the EV sector, we saw a 2016 Tesla Model X P100D with 43,969kms showing sell for $145,000, achieving 100% of the retail price.

Assets Kms/Hours Price
Achieved
% of
retail
State
2020 Toyota RAV4 63,378 32,880 86 WA
2019 Mazda CX-9 38,941 46,900 90 QLD
2016 Toyota Hilux SR 180,918 40,100 100 QLD
2020 Subaru Outback AWD Sport 4,114 43,900 95 QLD
2018 Ford Escape 43,004 32,000 95 QLD
2016 Toyota Hilux SR 4x4 54,584 39,354 86 VIC
2014 Ford Ranger XL 4x2 Tipper - *Ex Council* 149,047 23,291 95 VIC
2013 Ford Ranger XL 4x2 Tipper - *Ex Council* 110,142 23,633 95 VIC
2017 Mercedes-AMG GLE 52,556 110,456 81 VIC
2019 Mercedes-AMG GLE 300d 19,501 102,955 90 VIC
2016 Mercedes-Benz GLC 59,572 47,000 95 QLD
2016 Tesla Model X P100D 43,969 145,000 100 QLD
2017 Lamborghini Huracan LP 17,789 375,000 100 QLD
2017 Lamborghini Huracan Performante 32,638 424,100 92 VIC

Heritage and Prestige Number Plates

Our first Q Plate auction was in April 2021, when 3-digit Q-Plates averaged around $50,000, and 4-digit Q Plates averaged around $10,000. We are now selling 3-digit Q Plates for approximately $140,000 for high numbers and up to $180,000 for lower numbers. We are selling 4-digit plates for over $50,000. We have recently sold 2-digit Q Plates for up to $650,000. In August last year, we sold 2-digit Q Plates for around $220,000. Generally, Q Plates have increased value over the past 12 months by up to 400%.